Over 1.5 goals@1.17
Over 1.5
86%
GERBundesliga · Matchday 6Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Allianz Arena
Bayern München
1st · 18 pts6–1FULL TIME
RB Leipzig
4th · 15 pts41% Bayern
23% Draw
36% RB
OUR PICK
Bayern München to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.41
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.65
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.41X4.4422.77
Goals 2.5Over1.50Under2.86
Both scoreGG1.49NG2.86
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.50
Over 2.5
67%
Both teams to score@1.49
GG
67%
Double chance@1.29
12
77%
Season stats
Bayern MünchenRB Leipzig3.4Goals per game2.8
1.0Conceded per game1.4
2.25Points per game1.88
63%Win rate63%
19Goal difference11
11Form, last 5 (pts)9
Bayern München form
DWWDWH Borussia Dortmund2–2
H 1. FC Magdeburg6–1
A SC Freiburg1–3
H Arsenal2–2
H RB Leipzig6–1
RB Leipzig form
WWWLLA FC Schalke 040–2
A Rot-Weiß Essen1–2
H SV Elversberg4–0
A Real Madrid4–1
A Bayern München6–1
Head to head
5
Bayern
0
Draw
0
RB
Oct 2026Bayern München – RB Leipzig6–1
Aug 2026Bayern München – RB Leipzig3–1
Feb 2026Bayern München – RB Leipzig2–0
Jan 2026RB Leipzig – Bayern München1–5
Aug 2025Bayern München – RB Leipzig6–0
Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Bayern München8+1918
2Borussia Dortmund8+818
3SC Freiburg8+816
4RB Leipzig8+1115
5Werder Bremen8+315
6Bayer Leverkusen8+213
7SV Elversberg8013
8Eintracht Frankfurt8-511
9FSV Mainz 058010
10FC Augsburg8+39
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Bayern München 41%, the draw 23%, RB Leipzig 36%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.41 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.4 goals in total (1.78 for Bayern München, 1.65 for RB Leipzig), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Bayern München sit 1st on 18 points; RB Leipzig are 4th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.