Over 1.5 goals@1.27
Over 1.5
79%
GERBundesliga · Matchday 8Saturday, 31 October 2026 · Allianz Arena
Bayern München
1st · 18 pts2–2FULL TIME
Borussia Dortmund
2nd · 18 pts57% Bayern
23% Draw
21% Borussia
OUR PICK
Bayern München to win
Model probability 57% · fair odds
1.77
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.04
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.77X4.4324.78
Goals 2.5Over1.81Under2.10
Both scoreGG1.83NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.81
Over 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.83
GG
55%
Double chance@1.26
1X
79%
Season stats
Bayern MünchenBorussia Dortmund3.4Goals per game1.8
1.0Conceded per game0.8
2.25Points per game2.25
63%Win rate63%
19Goal difference8
11Form, last 5 (pts)9
Bayern München form
DWWDWH Borussia Dortmund2–2
H 1. FC Magdeburg6–1
A SC Freiburg1–3
H Arsenal2–2
H RB Leipzig6–1
Borussia Dortmund form
DWWWDA Bayern München2–2
H Werder Bremen3–2
H Eintracht Frankfurt1–0
A Sabah FA1–2
A Union Berlin0–0
Head to head
3
Bayern
2
Draw
0
Borussia
Oct 2026Bayern München – Borussia Dortmund2–2
Aug 2026Borussia Dortmund – Bayern München1–2
Feb 2026Borussia Dortmund – Bayern München2–3
Oct 2025Bayern München – Borussia Dortmund2–1
Apr 2025Bayern München – Borussia Dortmund2–2
Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Bayern München8+1918
2Borussia Dortmund8+818
3SC Freiburg8+816
4RB Leipzig8+1115
5Werder Bremen8+315
6Bayer Leverkusen8+213
7SV Elversberg8013
8Eintracht Frankfurt8-511
9FSV Mainz 058010
10FC Augsburg8+39
Match preview
Our model makes Bayern München clear favourites, giving them a 57% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.77 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.86 for Bayern München, 1.04 for Borussia Dortmund), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Bayern München sit 1st on 18 points; Borussia Dortmund are 2nd on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.