Over 1.5 goals@1.14
Over 1.5
88%
WORUEFA Champions League · League Stage - 3Wednesday, 21 October 2026 · Allianz Arena
Bayern München
14th · 5 pts2–2FULL TIME
Arsenal
7th · 7 pts46% Bayern
22% Draw
32% Arsenal
OUR PICKSolo pick of the day
Bayern München to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.16
Expected goals
1.99 – 1.64
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.16X4.6423.10
Goals 2.5Over1.42Under3.14
Both scoreGG1.44NG3.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.42
Over 2.5
70%
Both teams to score@1.44
GG
70%
Double chance@1.27
12
78%
Season stats
Bayern MünchenArsenal3.3Goals per game2.0
1.7Conceded per game0.7
1.67Points per game2.33
33%Win rate67%
5Goal difference4
5Form, last 5 (pts)7
Bayern München form
DWWDWH Borussia Dortmund2–2
H 1. FC Magdeburg6–1
A SC Freiburg1–3
H Arsenal2–2
H RB Leipzig6–1
Arsenal form
WDWDWA Liverpool0–1
A Fleetwood Town1–1
H Everton2–0
A Bayern München2–2
A Nottingham Forest0–1
Head to head
1
Bayern
2
Draw
2
Arsenal
Oct 2026Bayern München – Arsenal2–2
Nov 2025Arsenal – Bayern München3–1
Apr 2024Bayern Munich – Arsenal1–0
Apr 2024Arsenal – Bayern Munich2–2
Jul 2019Arsenal – Bayern Munich2–1
UEFA Champions League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain3+99
2Aston Villa3+99
3Liverpool3+59
4Real Madrid3+59
5Real Betis3+39
6VfB Stuttgart3+57
7Arsenal3+47
8Barcelona3+56
9Como3+56
10Manchester City3+46
Match preview
Our model makes Bayern München slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.16 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.6 goals in total (1.99 for Bayern München, 1.64 for Arsenal), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Bayern München sit 14th on 5 points; Arsenal are 7th on 7.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.