Over 1.5 goals@1.10
Over 1.5
91%
GERBundesliga · Matchday 6Sunday, 18 October 2026 · BayArena
Bayer Leverkusen
6th · 13 pts2–1FULL TIME
SC Freiburg
3rd · 16 pts32% Bayer
20% Draw
48% SC
OUR PICK
SC Freiburg to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.10
Expected goals
1.82 – 2.23
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.11X4.9422.10
Goals 2.5Over1.30Under4.10
Both scoreGG1.34NG3.77
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.30
Over 2.5
77%
Both teams to score@1.34
GG
75%
Double chance@1.25
12
80%
Season stats
Bayer LeverkusenSC Freiburg2.3Goals per game2.3
2.0Conceded per game1.3
1.63Points per game2.00
50%Win rate63%
2Goal difference8
9Form, last 5 (pts)7
Bayer Leverkusen form
LWLWWH VfB Stuttgart2–4
H 1. FC Nürnberg5–2
A 1899 Hoffenheim3–0
A OFI0–2
H SC Freiburg2–1
SC Freiburg form
WWLLLA FC Augsburg1–2
H VfL Wolfsburg3–2
H Bayern München1–3
A Monaco3–0
A Bayer Leverkusen2–1
Head to head
3
Bayer
2
Draw
0
SC
Oct 2026Bayer Leverkusen – SC Freiburg2–1
Mar 2026SC Freiburg – Bayer Leverkusen3–3
Oct 2025Bayer Leverkusen – SC Freiburg2–0
May 2025SC Freiburg – Bayer Leverkusen2–2
Dec 2024Bayer Leverkusen – SC Freiburg5–1
Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Bayern München8+1918
2Borussia Dortmund8+818
3SC Freiburg8+816
4RB Leipzig8+1115
5Werder Bremen8+315
6Bayer Leverkusen8+213
7SV Elversberg8013
8Eintracht Frankfurt8-511
9FSV Mainz 058010
10FC Augsburg8+39
Match preview
Our model makes SC Freiburg slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.10 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.0 goals in total (1.82 for Bayer Leverkusen, 2.23 for SC Freiburg), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Bayer Leverkusen sit 6th on 13 points; SC Freiburg are 3rd on 16.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.