Over 1.5 goals@1.13
Over 1.5
89%
WALPremier League · Matchday 15Friday, 30 October 2026 · Jenner Park
Barry Town
6th · 28 pts3–0FULL TIME
Trefelin
15th · 6 pts81% Barry
12% Draw
7% Trefelin
OUR PICK
Barry Town to win
Model probability 81% · fair odds
1.24
Expected goals
2.94 – 0.79
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.24X8.13213.99
Goals 2.5Over1.40Under3.37
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.40
Over 2.5
72%
Both teams to score@1.93
GG
52%
Double chance@1.08
1X
93%
Season stats
Barry TownTrefelin2.1Goals per game0.5
1.7Conceded per game2.4
1.87Points per game0.40
60%Win rate7%
6Goal difference-28
6Form, last 5 (pts)3
Barry Town form
WLWLWH Trefelin3–0
H Haverfordwest County AFC1–3
H Tredegar Town2–0
A Penybont3–1
A Caernarfon Town0–1
Trefelin form
LLWWLA Barry Town3–0
H Flint Town United0–2
H Llantwit Major4–1
A Cardiff MET1–3
A Airbus UK3–0
Head to head
4
Barry
0
Draw
0
Trefelin
Oct 2026Barry Town – Trefelin3–0
Feb 2023Trefelin – Barry Town1–2
Nov 2022Barry Town – Trefelin2–1
Sept 2021Barry Town – Trefelin3–0
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1The New Saints15+4741
2GAP Connah S Quay FC15+2335
3Penybont14+1933
4Caernarfon Town15+2329
5Colwyn Bay15+929
6Barry Town15+628
7Airbus UK15+927
8Cardiff MET15+322
9Cambrian & Clydach15-1518
10Llandudno15-616
Match preview
Our model makes Barry Town clear favourites, giving them a 81% chance of winning against 12% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.24 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.7 goals in total (2.94 for Barry Town, 0.79 for Trefelin), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Barry Town sit 6th on 28 points; Trefelin are 15th on 6.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.