Over 1.5 goals@1.31
Over 1.5
77%
WALPremier League · Matchday 14Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Jenner Park
Barry Town
6th · 28 pts1–3FULL TIME
Haverfordwest County AFC
11th · 16 pts66% Barry
20% Draw
13% Haverfordwest
OUR PICK
Barry Town to win
Model probability 66% · fair odds
1.51
Expected goals
2.01 – 0.77
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.51X4.9427.46
Goals 2.5Over1.90Under2.01
Both scoreGG2.01NG1.87
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.90
Over 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.87
NG
53%
Double chance@1.15
1X
87%
Season stats
Barry TownHaverfordwest County AFC2.1Goals per game0.8
1.7Conceded per game1.3
1.87Points per game1.07
60%Win rate33%
6Goal difference-8
6Form, last 5 (pts)6
Barry Town form
WLWLWH Trefelin3–0
H Haverfordwest County AFC1–3
H Tredegar Town2–0
A Penybont3–1
A Caernarfon Town0–1
Haverfordwest County AFC form
WWWLLA Ammanford AFC0–1
A Barry Town1–3
H Cardiff Corinthians4–0
H Caernarfon Town1–2
H Flint Town United0–1
Head to head
3
Barry
1
Draw
1
Haverfordwest
Oct 2026Barry Town – Haverfordwest County AFC1–3
Apr 2026Barry Town – Haverfordwest County AFC1–1
Nov 2025Barry Town – Haverfordwest County AFC4–0
Nov 2025Haverfordwest County AFC – Barry Town0–2
Sept 2025Haverfordwest County AFC – Barry Town2–3
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1The New Saints15+4741
2GAP Connah S Quay FC15+2335
3Penybont14+1933
4Caernarfon Town15+2329
5Colwyn Bay15+929
6Barry Town15+628
7Airbus UK15+927
8Cardiff MET15+322
9Cambrian & Clydach15-1518
10Llandudno15-616
Match preview
Our model makes Barry Town clear favourites, giving them a 66% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.51 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (2.01 for Barry Town, 0.77 for Haverfordwest County AFC), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Barry Town sit 6th on 28 points; Haverfordwest County AFC are 11th on 16.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.