Over 1.5 goals@1.31
Over 1.5
76%
ENGLeague One · Matchday 14Saturday, 31 October 2026 · Oakwell Ground
Barnsley
23rd · 9 pts1–1FULL TIME
Oxford United
3rd · 23 pts18% Barnsley
22% Draw
59% Oxford
OUR PICK
Oxford United to win
Model probability 59% · fair odds
1.69
Expected goals
0.92 – 1.85
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X215.45X4.4621.69
Goals 2.5Over1.91Under1.97
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.91
Over 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.97
GG
51%
Double chance@1.22
X2
82%
Season stats
BarnsleyOxford United1.0Goals per game1.7
1.8Conceded per game0.9
0.75Points per game1.92
17%Win rate50%
-10Goal difference9
1Form, last 5 (pts)9
Barnsley form
DLLLLH Oxford United1–1
A Reading2–1
A Luton2–1
H Cambridge United1–2
A Stockport County3–1
Oxford United form
DWDWDA Barnsley1–1
H Stockport County1–0
H Bradford0–0
H Wigan2–1
A Mansfield Town1–1
Head to head
3
Barnsley
1
Draw
1
Oxford
Oct 2026Barnsley – Oxford United1–1
Jan 2024Oxford United – Barnsley0–1
Aug 2023Barnsley – Oxford United1–3
Apr 2023Barnsley – Oxford United2–0
Feb 2023Oxford United – Barnsley1–2
League One table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Huddersfield13+1628
2Stockport County14+1226
3Oxford United12+923
4Luton13+623
5Plymouth14+223
6Reading13+1222
7Bradford13+222
8Cambridge United14021
9Sheffield Wednesday13+820
10Leicester13+319
Match preview
Our model makes Oxford United clear favourites, giving them a 59% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.69 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (0.92 for Barnsley, 1.85 for Oxford United), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Barnsley sit 23rd on 9 points; Oxford United are 3rd on 23.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.