Over 1.5 goals@1.25
Over 1.5
80%
ENGLeague Two · Matchday 12Tuesday, 20 October 2026 · The Hive Stadium
Barnet
2nd · 26 pts1–3FULL TIME
Swindon Town
13th · 19 pts66% Barnet
20% Draw
14% Swindon
OUR PICK
Barnet to win
Model probability 66% · fair odds
1.51
Expected goals
2.12 – 0.86
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.51X5.1127.08
Goals 2.5Over1.75Under2.19
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.75
Over 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.97
GG
51%
Double chance@1.16
1X
86%
Season stats
BarnetSwindon Town2.2Goals per game1.1
1.4Conceded per game1.2
2.00Points per game1.36
54%Win rate36%
10Goal difference-2
8Form, last 5 (pts)8
Barnet form
DWDLWA Crewe1–1
H York3–1
H Oldham1–1
H Swindon Town1–3
A Tranmere1–2
Swindon Town form
WDWDLH Rotherham2–1
A Bristol Rovers0–0
A Barnet1–3
H Walsall1–1
H Crewe0–1
Head to head
2
Barnet
0
Draw
3
Swindon
Oct 2026Barnet – Swindon Town1–3
Feb 2026Barnet – Swindon Town1–2
Aug 2025Swindon Town – Barnet0–2
Jan 2018Barnet – Swindon Town1–2
Sept 2017Swindon Town – Barnet1–4
League Two table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
Match preview
Our model makes Barnet clear favourites, giving them a 66% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.51 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (2.12 for Barnet, 0.86 for Swindon Town), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Barnet sit 2nd on 26 points; Swindon Town are 13th on 19.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.