Over 1.5 goals@1.07
Over 1.5
94%
ESPLa Liga · Matchday 10Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Spotify Camp Nou
Barcelona
1st · 30 pts1–2FULL TIME
Real Madrid
3rd · 27 pts65% Barcelona
16% Draw
18% Real
OUR PICKSolo pick of the day
Barcelona to win
Model probability 65% · fair odds
1.53
Expected goals
2.91 – 1.55
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.53X6.1125.42
Goals 2.5Over1.22Under5.24
Both scoreGG1.34NG3.63
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.22
Over 2.5
82%
Both teams to score@1.34
GG
74%
Double chance@1.20
12
84%
Season stats
BarcelonaReal Madrid4.2Goals per game2.5
1.1Conceded per game0.9
2.73Points per game2.45
91%Win rate82%
34Goal difference18
12Form, last 5 (pts)12
Barcelona form
WLLWWH Alaves6–1
H Real Madrid1–2
A Paris Saint Germain4–2
A Real Betis2–5
A Galatasaray1–4
Real Madrid form
WWWWWA Racing Santander0–3
A Barcelona1–2
H RB Leipzig4–1
H Sevilla4–1
A AS Roma3–4
Head to head
3
Barcelona
0
Draw
2
Real
Oct 2026Barcelona – Real Madrid1–2
May 2026Barcelona – Real Madrid2–0
Jan 2026Barcelona – Real Madrid3–2
Oct 2025Real Madrid – Barcelona2–1
May 2025Barcelona – Real Madrid4–3
La Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Barcelona11+3430
2Atletico Madrid11+1428
3Real Madrid11+1827
4Real Betis11+323
5Real Sociedad11019
6Sevilla11-217
7Athletic Club10+415
8Villarreal11012
9Celta Vigo11012
10Alaves11-212
Match preview
Our model makes Barcelona clear favourites, giving them a 65% chance of winning against 16% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.53 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.5 goals in total (2.91 for Barcelona, 1.55 for Real Madrid), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Barcelona sit 1st on 30 points; Real Madrid are 3rd on 27.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.