Over 1.5 goals@1.04
Over 1.5
96%
WORUEFA Champions League · League Stage - 4Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · Spotify Camp Nou
Barcelona
8th · 6 pts21:00KICK-OFF WAT
Aston Villa
2nd · 9 pts38% Barcelona
19% Draw
43% Aston
OUR PICK
Aston Villa to win
Model probability 43% · fair odds
2.30
Expected goals
2.39 – 2.55
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.63X5.3822.30
Goals 2.5Over1.15Under7.26
Both scoreGG1.19NG5.90
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.15
Over 2.5
87%
Both teams to score@1.19
GG
84%
Double chance@1.23
12
81%
Season stats
BarcelonaAston Villa3.7Goals per game4.0
2.0Conceded per game1.0
2.00Points per game3.00
67%Win rate100%
5Goal difference9
6Form, last 5 (pts)9
Barcelona form
WLLWWH Alaves6–1
H Real Madrid1–2
A Paris Saint Germain4–2
A Real Betis2–5
A Galatasaray1–4
Aston Villa form
DLWWWH Fulham1–1
A Bournemouth3–0
H Manchester City2–1
H Viking3–1
A Newcastle0–1
Head to head
0
Barcelona
0
Draw
0
Aston
These sides haven't met recently.
UEFA Champions League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain3+99
2Aston Villa3+99
3Liverpool3+59
4Real Madrid3+59
5Real Betis3+39
6VfB Stuttgart3+57
7Arsenal3+47
8Barcelona3+56
9Como3+56
10Manchester City3+46
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Barcelona 38%, the draw 19%, Aston Villa 43%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.30 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.9 goals in total (2.39 for Barcelona, 2.55 for Aston Villa), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Barcelona sit 8th on 6 points; Aston Villa are 2nd on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.