Over 1.5 goals@1.07
Over 1.5
94%
ESPLa Liga · Matchday 11Saturday, 31 October 2026 · Spotify Camp Nou
Barcelona
1st · 30 pts6–1FULL TIME
Alaves
10th · 12 pts83% Barcelona
10% Draw
7% Alaves
OUR PICK
Barcelona to win
Model probability 83% · fair odds
1.21
Expected goals
3.50 – 1.00
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.21X9.68214.58
Goals 2.5Over1.22Under5.24
Both scoreGG1.63NG2.42
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.22
Over 2.5
82%
Both teams to score@1.63
GG
61%
Double chance@1.07
1X
93%
Season stats
BarcelonaAlaves4.2Goals per game1.4
1.1Conceded per game1.5
2.73Points per game1.09
91%Win rate27%
34Goal difference-2
12Form, last 5 (pts)2
Barcelona form
No recent matches.
Alaves form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Barcelona
0
Draw
0
Alaves
These sides haven't met recently.
La Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Barcelona11+3430
2Atletico Madrid11+1428
3Real Madrid10+1524
4Real Betis11+323
5Real Sociedad10+119
6Sevilla10017
7Athletic Club9+312
8Villarreal11012
9Celta Vigo11012
10Alaves11-212
Match preview
Our model makes Barcelona clear favourites, giving them a 83% chance of winning against 10% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.21 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.5 goals in total (3.50 for Barcelona, 1.00 for Alaves), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Barcelona sit 1st on 30 points; Alaves are 10th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.