Over 1.5 goals@1.47
Over 1.5
68%
BRASerie A · Matchday 33Thursday, 29 October 2026 · Arena Fonte Nova
Bahia
6th · 53 pts3–2FULL TIME
Sao Paulo
10th · 43 pts45% Bahia
28% Draw
27% Sao
OUR PICK
Bahia to win
Model probability 45% · fair odds
2.22
Expected goals
1.35 – 0.99
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.22X3.6423.64
Goals 2.5Over2.30Under1.71
Both scoreGG2.01NG1.87
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.71
Under 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.87
NG
53%
Double chance@1.38
1X
73%
Season stats
BahiaSao Paulo1.5Goals per game1.2
1.3Conceded per game1.2
1.61Points per game1.30
42%Win rate36%
6Goal difference0
7Form, last 5 (pts)7
Bahia form
WDLWLH Sao Paulo3–2
A Santos1–1
H Flamengo0–3
H Mirassol1–0
A Palmeiras1–0
Sao Paulo form
LDWWLA Bahia3–2
A Mirassol1–1
H Vasco DA Gama1–0
H Vitoria2–1
A Cruzeiro2–0
Head to head
2
Bahia
1
Draw
2
Sao
Oct 2026Bahia – Sao Paulo3–2
May 2026Sao Paulo – Bahia2–2
Oct 2025Sao Paulo – Bahia2–0
May 2025Bahia – Sao Paulo2–1
Nov 2024Bahia – Sao Paulo0–3
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8Santos33+247
9RB Bragantino33+444
10Sao Paulo33043
Match preview
Our model makes Bahia slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.22 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.35 for Bahia, 0.99 for Sao Paulo), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Bahia sit 6th on 53 points; Sao Paulo are 10th on 43.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.