Over 1.5 goals@1.31
Over 1.5
77%
BRASerie A · Matchday 30Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Arena Fonte Nova
Bahia
6th · 53 pts1–0FULL TIME
Mirassol
16th · 37 pts54% Bahia
24% Draw
23% Mirassol
OUR PICK
Bahia to win
Model probability 54% · fair odds
1.86
Expected goals
1.74 – 1.04
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.86X4.2324.43
Goals 2.5Over1.90Under2.01
Both scoreGG1.88NG2.01
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.90
Over 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.88
GG
53%
Double chance@1.29
1X
77%
Season stats
BahiaMirassol1.5Goals per game1.1
1.3Conceded per game1.4
1.61Points per game1.12
42%Win rate27%
6Goal difference-10
7Form, last 5 (pts)5
Bahia form
WDLWLH Sao Paulo3–2
A Santos1–1
H Flamengo0–3
H Mirassol1–0
A Palmeiras1–0
Mirassol form
LDWLDA Corinthians2–0
H Sao Paulo1–1
H Internacional2–0
A Bahia1–0
A RB Bragantino1–1
Head to head
2
Bahia
1
Draw
1
Mirassol
Oct 2026Bahia – Mirassol1–0
Apr 2026Mirassol – Bahia1–2
Aug 2025Mirassol – Bahia5–1
Apr 2025Bahia – Mirassol1–1
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8Santos33+247
9RB Bragantino33+444
10Sao Paulo33043
Match preview
Our model makes Bahia clear favourites, giving them a 54% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.86 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.74 for Bahia, 1.04 for Mirassol), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Bahia sit 6th on 53 points; Mirassol are 16th on 37.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.