Over 1.5 goals@1.31
Over 1.5
76%
BRASerie A · Matchday 31Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Arena Fonte Nova
Bahia
6th · 53 pts0–3FULL TIME
Flamengo
1st · 73 pts27% Bahia
25% Draw
48% Flamengo
OUR PICK
Flamengo to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.08
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.61
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.67X4.0422.08
Goals 2.5Over1.92Under1.97
Both scoreGG1.83NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.92
Over 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.83
GG
55%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
Season stats
BahiaFlamengo1.5Goals per game2.1
1.3Conceded per game0.8
1.61Points per game2.21
42%Win rate67%
6Goal difference40
7Form, last 5 (pts)13
Bahia form
WDLWLH Sao Paulo3–2
A Santos1–1
H Flamengo0–3
H Mirassol1–0
A Palmeiras1–0
Flamengo form
WWDWDA Vasco DA Gama1–4
H Atletico-MG3–2
H Estudiantes L.P.0–0
A Bahia0–3
A Estudiantes L.P.0–0
Head to head
1
Bahia
0
Draw
4
Flamengo
Oct 2026Bahia – Flamengo0–3
Apr 2026Flamengo – Bahia2–0
Oct 2025Bahia – Flamengo1–0
May 2025Flamengo – Bahia1–0
Oct 2024Bahia – Flamengo0–2
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8Santos33+247
9RB Bragantino33+444
10Sao Paulo33043
Match preview
Our model makes Flamengo slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.08 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.15 for Bahia, 1.61 for Flamengo), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Bahia sit 6th on 53 points; Flamengo are 1st on 73.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.