Over 1.5 goals@1.25
Over 1.5
80%
TURSüper Lig · Matchday 8Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium
Başakşehir
10th · 14 pts2–1FULL TIME
Gaziantep FK
15th · 8 pts59% Başakşehir
22% Draw
20% Gaziantep
OUR PICK
Başakşehir to win
Model probability 59% · fair odds
1.71
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.04
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.71X4.6025.06
Goals 2.5Over1.74Under2.19
Both scoreGG1.80NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.74
Over 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.80
GG
55%
Double chance@1.25
1X
80%
Season stats
BaşakşehirGaziantep FK1.7Goals per game0.9
1.6Conceded per game1.7
1.40Points per game0.80
40%Win rate20%
1Goal difference-8
10Form, last 5 (pts)0
Başakşehir form
WLWDWH Samsunspor5–2
A Beşiktaş2–0
H Gaziantep FK2–1
A Konyaspor0–0
H Gençlerbirliği S.K.4–0
Gaziantep FK form
LWLLLA Trabzonspor2–0
A Etimesgut SK0–4
H Erzurumspor FK1–3
A Başakşehir2–1
H Çorum FK0–3
Head to head
4
Başakşehir
0
Draw
1
Gaziantep
Oct 2026Başakşehir – Gaziantep FK2–1
May 2026Gaziantep FK – Başakşehir1–2
Dec 2025Başakşehir – Gaziantep FK5–1
Apr 2025Başakşehir – Gaziantep FK2–1
Nov 2024Gaziantep FK – Başakşehir3–0
Süper Lig table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Galatasaray10+1125
2Amed10+1423
3Trabzonspor10+1622
4Beşiktaş10+819
5Kasımpaşa10+417
6Fenerbahçe10+1416
7Çorum FK10+516
8Kocaelispor10+216
9Göztepe10+415
10Başakşehir10+114
Match preview
Our model makes Başakşehir clear favourites, giving them a 59% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.71 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.95 for Başakşehir, 1.04 for Gaziantep FK), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Başakşehir sit 10th on 14 points; Gaziantep FK are 15th on 8.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.