Over 1.5 goals@1.26
Over 1.5
79%
NEDEredivisie · Matchday 10Sunday, 25 October 2026 · AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar）
AZ Alkmaar
5th · 20 pts0–2FULL TIME
Twente
4th · 23 pts37% AZ
24% Draw
39% Twente
OUR PICK
Twente to win
Model probability 39% · fair odds
2.59
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.50
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.71X4.0822.59
Goals 2.5Over1.76Under2.19
Both scoreGG1.68NG2.36
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.76
Over 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.68
GG
60%
Double chance@1.32
12
76%
Season stats
AZ AlkmaarTwente1.8Goals per game2.5
1.2Conceded per game0.9
1.82Points per game2.09
55%Win rate64%
7Goal difference18
4Form, last 5 (pts)10
AZ Alkmaar form
LLWDWA Ajax1–0
H Twente0–2
A Ararat-Armenia0–4
A Cambuur2–2
H Hapoel Beer Sheva2–1
Twente form
WWWLWA Excelsior0–9
A AZ Alkmaar0–2
A Lincoln Red Imps FC1–4
H Utrecht1–2
H FC Thun1–0
Head to head
2
AZ
1
Draw
2
Twente
Oct 2026AZ Alkmaar – Twente0–2
May 2026AZ Alkmaar – Twente2–2
Feb 2026AZ Alkmaar – Twente2–1
Nov 2025Twente – AZ Alkmaar1–0
May 2025AZ Alkmaar – Twente3–2
Eredivisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Feyenoord11+2125
2Ajax11+1724
3PSV Eindhoven11+2223
4Twente11+1823
5AZ Alkmaar11+720
6Fortuna Sittard11019
7Heerenveen11+618
8Groningen11+215
9Cambuur11+115
10GO Ahead Eagles11-414
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: AZ Alkmaar 37%, the draw 24%, Twente 39%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.59 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.46 for AZ Alkmaar, 1.50 for Twente), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
AZ Alkmaar sit 5th on 20 points; Twente are 4th on 23.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.