Over 1.5 goals@1.22
Over 1.5
82%
WORUEFA Europa League · League Stage - 4Thursday, 5 November 2026 · AFAS Stadion
AZ Alkmaar
10th · 6 pts21:00KICK-OFF WAT
Juventus
7th · 7 pts42% AZ
24% Draw
34% Juventus
OUR PICK
AZ Alkmaar to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.37
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.46
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.37X4.2222.94
Goals 2.5Over1.66Under2.36
Both scoreGG1.61NG2.48
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.66
Over 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.61
GG
62%
Double chance@1.31
12
76%
Season stats
AZ AlkmaarJuventus2.0Goals per game3.0
0.7Conceded per game1.0
2.00Points per game2.33
67%Win rate67%
4Goal difference6
6Form, last 5 (pts)7
AZ Alkmaar form
LLWDWA Ajax1–0
H Twente0–2
A Ararat-Armenia0–4
A Cambuur2–2
H Hapoel Beer Sheva2–1
Juventus form
WLWDLH Napoli2–0
A Genoa2–0
A Lecce0–2
H Rennes2–2
H Lazio0–3
Head to head
0
AZ
0
Draw
0
Juventus
These sides haven't met recently.
UEFA Europa League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Benfica3+89
2Bayer Leverkusen3+89
3Bournemouth3+79
4Ferencvarosi TC3+69
5Olympiakos Piraeus3+39
6Union St. Gilloise3+77
7Juventus3+67
8Beşiktaş3+47
9Sunderland3+27
10AZ Alkmaar3+46
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: AZ Alkmaar 42%, the draw 24%, Juventus 34%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.37 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (1.65 for AZ Alkmaar, 1.46 for Juventus), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
AZ Alkmaar sit 10th on 6 points; Juventus are 7th on 7.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.