Over 1.5 goals@1.30
Over 1.5
77%
WORUEFA Europa League · League Stage - 2Thursday, 15 October 2026 · AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar）
AZ Alkmaar
10th · 6 pts2–1FULL TIME
Hapoel Beer Sheva
30th · 1 pts69% AZ
19% Draw
12% Hapoel
OUR PICK
AZ Alkmaar to win
Model probability 69% · fair odds
1.44
Expected goals
2.08 – 0.71
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.44X5.2128.63
Goals 2.5Over1.90Under2.01
Both scoreGG2.14NG1.80
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.90
Over 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.80
NG
56%
Double chance@1.13
1X
88%
Season stats
AZ AlkmaarHapoel Beer Sheva2.0Goals per game0.3
0.7Conceded per game2.0
2.00Points per game0.33
67%Win rate0%
4Goal difference-5
6Form, last 5 (pts)1
AZ Alkmaar form
LLWDWA Ajax1–0
H Twente0–2
A Ararat-Armenia0–4
A Cambuur2–2
H Hapoel Beer Sheva2–1
Hapoel Beer Sheva form
WWLWLA Maccabi Petah Tikva2–5
A Maccabi Haifa2–5
A Union St. Gilloise4–0
H Hapoel Katamon2–1
A AZ Alkmaar2–1
Head to head
1
AZ
0
Draw
0
Hapoel
Oct 2026AZ Alkmaar – Hapoel Beer Sheva2–1
UEFA Europa League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Benfica3+89
2Bayer Leverkusen3+89
3Bournemouth3+79
4Ferencvarosi TC3+69
5Olympiakos Piraeus3+39
6Union St. Gilloise3+77
7Juventus3+67
8Beşiktaş3+47
9Sunderland3+27
10AZ Alkmaar3+46
Match preview
Our model makes AZ Alkmaar clear favourites, giving them a 69% chance of winning against 19% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.44 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (2.08 for AZ Alkmaar, 0.71 for Hapoel Beer Sheva), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
AZ Alkmaar sit 10th on 6 points; Hapoel Beer Sheva are 30th on 1.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.