Over 1.5 goals@1.13
Over 1.5
89%
NEDEredivisie · Matchday 12Sunday, 8 November 2026 · AFAS Stadion
AZ Alkmaar
5th · 20 pts16:45KICK-OFF WAT
Groningen
8th · 15 pts56% AZ
20% Draw
24% Groningen
OUR PICK
AZ Alkmaar to win
Model probability 56% · fair odds
1.78
Expected goals
2.28 – 1.44
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.78X5.0224.21
Goals 2.5Over1.39Under3.37
Both scoreGG1.46NG3.04
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.39
Over 2.5
72%
Both teams to score@1.46
GG
69%
Double chance@1.25
12
80%
Season stats
AZ AlkmaarGroningen1.8Goals per game2.4
1.2Conceded per game2.2
1.82Points per game1.36
55%Win rate36%
7Goal difference2
4Form, last 5 (pts)7
AZ Alkmaar form
LLWDWA Ajax1–0
H Twente0–2
A Ararat-Armenia0–4
A Cambuur2–2
H Hapoel Beer Sheva2–1
Groningen form
LLDLWH Sparta Rotterdam2–3
H Emmen0–2
A NEC Nijmegen2–2
H Ajax2–5
A Excelsior1–5
Head to head
3
AZ
1
Draw
1
Groningen
Mar 2026Groningen – AZ Alkmaar3–0
Aug 2025AZ Alkmaar – Groningen4–1
May 2025AZ Alkmaar – Groningen3–0
Dec 2024AZ Alkmaar – Groningen3–1
Aug 2024Groningen – AZ Alkmaar0–0
Eredivisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Feyenoord11+2125
2Ajax11+1724
3PSV Eindhoven11+2223
4Twente11+1823
5AZ Alkmaar11+720
6Fortuna Sittard11019
7Heerenveen11+618
8Groningen11+215
9Cambuur11+115
10GO Ahead Eagles11-414
Match preview
Our model makes AZ Alkmaar clear favourites, giving them a 56% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.78 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.7 goals in total (2.28 for AZ Alkmaar, 1.44 for Groningen), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
AZ Alkmaar sit 5th on 20 points; Groningen are 8th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.