Over 1.5 goals@1.65
Over 1.5
60%
SCOChampionship · Matchday 11Friday, 16 October 2026 · Somerset Park
Ayr Utd
7th · 15 pts0–1FULL TIME
Partick
1st · 25 pts26% Ayr
30% Draw
44% Partick
OUR PICK
Partick to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.25
Expected goals
0.84 – 1.20
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.88X3.3522.25
Goals 2.5Over2.86Under1.50
Both scoreGG2.36NG1.66
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.50
Under 2.5
67%
Both teams to score@1.66
NG
60%
Double chance@1.35
X2
74%
Season stats
Ayr UtdPartick1.1Goals per game1.3
1.2Conceded per game0.5
1.25Points per game1.92
33%Win rate54%
-1Goal difference10
7Form, last 5 (pts)10
Ayr Utd form
WLDWH Queen's Park3–2
H Partick0–1
H Dunfermline1–1
A Livingston1–2
Partick form
LWDWWH Morton2–3
H Stenhousemuir3–0
A Dunfermline1–1
A Ayr Utd0–1
A Livingston1–2
Head to head
0
Ayr
2
Draw
3
Partick
Oct 2026Ayr Utd – Partick0–1
Sept 2026Partick – Ayr Utd1–0
Apr 2026Ayr Utd – Partick1–1
Jan 2026Partick – Ayr Utd2–1
Dec 2025Ayr Utd – Partick0–0
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Partick13+1025
2Raith Rovers13+1124
3Dunfermline13+824
4Stenhousemuir13+123
5Livingston13+720
6Inverness CT13+119
7Ayr Utd12-115
8Arbroath13-1511
9Morton12-810
10Queen's Park13-147
Match preview
Our model makes Partick slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 30% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.25 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.0 goals in total (0.84 for Ayr Utd, 1.20 for Partick), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Ayr Utd sit 7th on 15 points; Partick are 1st on 25.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.