Over 1.5 goals@1.85
Over 1.5
54%
SCOChampionship · Matchday 10Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Somerset Park
Ayr Utd
7th · 15 pts1–1FULL TIME
Dunfermline
3rd · 24 pts24% Ayr
32% Draw
44% Dunfermline
OUR PICK
Dunfermline to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.27
Expected goals
0.72 – 1.09
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.17X3.1322.27
Goals 2.5Over3.49Under1.37
Both scoreGG2.77NG1.52
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.37
Under 2.5
73%
Both teams to score@1.52
NG
66%
Double chance@1.32
X2
76%
Season stats
Ayr UtdDunfermline1.1Goals per game1.2
1.2Conceded per game0.5
1.25Points per game1.85
33%Win rate46%
-1Goal difference8
7Form, last 5 (pts)11
Ayr Utd form
WLDWH Queen's Park3–2
H Partick0–1
H Dunfermline1–1
A Livingston1–2
Dunfermline form
WWWDDH Inverness CT5–1
A Stenhousemuir0–1
A Queen's Park0–1
H Partick1–1
H Livingston0–0
Head to head
1
Ayr
2
Draw
2
Dunfermline
Oct 2026Ayr Utd – Dunfermline1–1
Aug 2026Dunfermline – Ayr Utd1–1
Apr 2026Ayr Utd – Dunfermline0–3
Dec 2025Dunfermline – Ayr Utd2–3
Oct 2025Ayr Utd – Dunfermline0–1
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Partick13+1025
2Raith Rovers13+1124
3Dunfermline13+824
4Stenhousemuir13+123
5Livingston13+720
6Inverness CT13+119
7Ayr Utd12-115
8Arbroath13-1511
9Morton12-810
10Queen's Park13-147
Match preview
Our model makes Dunfermline slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 32% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.27 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.8 goals in total (0.72 for Ayr Utd, 1.09 for Dunfermline), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Ayr Utd sit 7th on 15 points; Dunfermline are 3rd on 24.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.