Over 1.5 goals@1.34
Over 1.5
75%
JPNJ1 League · Matchday 14Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Best Denki Stadium
Avispa Fukuoka
20th · 7 pts07:00KICK-OFF WAT
V-varen Nagasaki
15th · 12 pts36% Avispa
26% Draw
38% V-varen
OUR PICK
V-varen Nagasaki to win
Model probability 38% · fair odds
2.63
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.36
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.77X3.8622.63
Goals 2.5Over1.99Under1.89
Both scoreGG1.84NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.99
Over 2.5
50%
Both teams to score@1.84
GG
54%
Double chance@1.35
12
74%
Season stats
Avispa FukuokaV-varen Nagasaki1.0Goals per game1.2
1.8Conceded per game1.6
0.54Points per game0.92
15%Win rate23%
-11Goal difference-5
3Form, last 5 (pts)4
Avispa Fukuoka form
LLLLLA JEF United Chiba3–0
A Tokyo Verdy3–1
H Gamba Osaka1–2
A Machida Zelvia3–0
A Sagan Tosu2–1
V-varen Nagasaki form
LLWLDH Tokyo Verdy1–2
A Urawa1–0
H Sanfrecce Hiroshima4–0
A Kashima2–0
A JEF United Chiba1–1
Head to head
3
Avispa
0
Draw
2
V-varen
Apr 2026Avispa Fukuoka – V-varen Nagasaki1–0
Mar 2026V-varen Nagasaki – Avispa Fukuoka1–0
Jul 2022Avispa Fukuoka – V-varen Nagasaki2–0
Sept 2020V-varen Nagasaki – Avispa Fukuoka1–3
Jul 2020Avispa Fukuoka – V-varen Nagasaki1–2
J1 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Tokyo13+2330
2Sanfrecce Hiroshima13+2229
3Machida Zelvia13+2028
4Kashiwa Reysol13+1028
5Vissel Kobe13+926
6Kashima13+723
7Kawasaki Frontale13+522
8Yokohama F. Marinos13+621
9Urawa13-621
10Fagiano Okayama13-616
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Avispa Fukuoka 36%, the draw 26%, V-varen Nagasaki 38%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.63 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.32 for Avispa Fukuoka, 1.36 for V-varen Nagasaki), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Avispa Fukuoka sit 20th on 7 points; V-varen Nagasaki are 15th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.