Over 1.5 goals@1.39
Over 1.5
72%
JPNJ1 League · Matchday 11Wednesday, 21 October 2026 · Best Denki Stadium
Avispa Fukuoka
20th · 7 pts1–2FULL TIME
Gamba Osaka
16th · 12 pts41% Avispa
27% Draw
32% Gamba
OUR PICK
Avispa Fukuoka to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.43
Expected goals
1.36 – 1.17
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.43X3.7523.11
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.86
Both scoreGG1.95NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.86
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.95
GG
51%
Double chance@1.36
12
73%
Season stats
Avispa FukuokaGamba Osaka1.0Goals per game1.1
1.8Conceded per game1.6
0.54Points per game0.92
15%Win rate15%
-11Goal difference-7
3Form, last 5 (pts)6
Avispa Fukuoka form
LLLLLA JEF United Chiba3–0
A Tokyo Verdy3–1
H Gamba Osaka1–2
A Machida Zelvia3–0
A Sagan Tosu2–1
Gamba Osaka form
DDDWDA Machida Zelvia0–0
H Buriram United1–1
H Kyoto Sanga2–2
A Avispa Fukuoka1–2
A Shimizu S-pulse2–2
Head to head
0
Avispa
0
Draw
0
Gamba
These sides haven't met recently.
J1 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Tokyo13+2330
2Sanfrecce Hiroshima13+2229
3Machida Zelvia13+2028
4Kashiwa Reysol13+1028
5Vissel Kobe13+926
6Kashima13+723
7Kawasaki Frontale13+522
8Yokohama F. Marinos13+621
9Urawa13-621
10Fagiano Okayama13-616
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Avispa Fukuoka 41%, the draw 27%, Gamba Osaka 32%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.43 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.36 for Avispa Fukuoka, 1.17 for Gamba Osaka), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Avispa Fukuoka sit 20th on 7 points; Gamba Osaka are 16th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.