Over 1.5 goals@1.45
Over 1.5
69%
ITASerie B · Matchday 6Friday, 9 October 2026 · Partenio-Adriano Lombardi
Avellino
5th · 15 pts4–1FULL TIME
Sampdoria
19th · 8 pts55% Avellino
25% Draw
20% Sampdoria
OUR PICK
Avellino to win
Model probability 55% · fair odds
1.82
Expected goals
1.57 – 0.82
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.82X3.9425.11
Goals 2.5Over2.19Under1.75
Both scoreGG2.14NG1.80
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.75
Under 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.80
NG
56%
Double chance@1.24
1X
80%
Season stats
AvellinoSampdoria1.5Goals per game1.0
1.0Conceded per game1.8
1.50Points per game0.80
40%Win rate20%
5Goal difference-8
8Form, last 5 (pts)4
Avellino form
WDLDWH Pisa2–0
A Virtus Entella1–1
H Padova0–1
A Cesena1–1
H Sampdoria4–1
Sampdoria form
WLDLLH Virtus Entella2–0
A Ascoli2–0
A Sudtirol1–1
H Arezzo1–2
A Avellino4–1
Head to head
2
Avellino
0
Draw
1
Sampdoria
Oct 2026Avellino – Sampdoria4–1
Mar 2026Sampdoria – Avellino2–1
Jan 2026Avellino – Sampdoria2–1
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Palermo10+1226
2Modena10+820
3Ascoli10+1019
4Mantova10+418
5Avellino10+515
6Benevento10+415
7Hellas Verona10+615
8Pisa10+315
9Padova10-114
10Sudtirol10+114
Match preview
Our model makes Avellino clear favourites, giving them a 55% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.82 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.57 for Avellino, 0.82 for Sampdoria), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Avellino sit 5th on 15 points; Sampdoria are 19th on 8.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.