Over 1.5 goals@1.41
Over 1.5
71%
ITASerie B · Matchday 8Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Partenio-Adriano Lombardi
Avellino
5th · 15 pts0–1FULL TIME
Padova
9th · 14 pts57% Avellino
24% Draw
18% Padova
OUR PICK
Avellino to win
Model probability 57% · fair odds
1.74
Expected goals
1.66 – 0.82
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.74X4.1225.44
Goals 2.5Over2.10Under1.82
Both scoreGG2.10NG1.83
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.82
Under 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.83
NG
55%
Double chance@1.23
1X
82%
Season stats
AvellinoPadova1.5Goals per game1.0
1.0Conceded per game1.1
1.50Points per game1.40
40%Win rate40%
5Goal difference-1
8Form, last 5 (pts)7
Avellino form
WDLDWH Pisa2–0
A Virtus Entella1–1
H Padova0–1
A Cesena1–1
H Sampdoria4–1
Padova form
DWWLLA Catanzaro1–1
H Sudtirol2–0
A Avellino0–1
H Virtus Entella1–2
H Carrarese0–2
Head to head
1
Avellino
1
Draw
3
Padova
Oct 2026Avellino – Padova0–1
Mar 2026Avellino – Padova1–0
Sept 2025Padova – Avellino2–2
May 2025Avellino – Padova0–1
Jun 2021Avellino – Padova0–1
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Palermo10+1226
2Modena10+820
3Ascoli10+1019
4Mantova10+418
5Avellino10+515
6Benevento10+415
7Hellas Verona10+615
8Pisa10+315
9Padova10-114
10Sudtirol10+114
Match preview
Our model makes Avellino clear favourites, giving them a 57% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.74 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.66 for Avellino, 0.82 for Padova), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Avellino sit 5th on 15 points; Padova are 9th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.