Over 1.5 goals@1.41
Over 1.5
71%
BRASerie B · Matchday 32Wednesday, 7 October 2026 · Estádio da Ressacada
Avai
17th · 37 pts2–1FULL TIME
Londrina
18th · 32 pts38% Avai
27% Draw
35% Londrina
OUR PICK
Avai to win
Model probability 38% · fair odds
2.64
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.21
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.64X3.6922.86
Goals 2.5Over2.10Under1.82
Both scoreGG1.98NG1.89
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.82
Under 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.98
GG
50%
Double chance@1.37
12
73%
Season stats
AvaiLondrina0.9Goals per game1.3
1.3Conceded per game1.5
1.03Points per game0.89
28%Win rate22%
-13Goal difference-9
7Form, last 5 (pts)4
Avai form
LLDWWA Nautico Recife1–0
H Botafogo SP0–2
H Athletic Club0–0
A Cuiaba0–1
H Londrina2–1
Londrina form
LLWDLH America Mineiro1–3
A CRB2–1
H Cuiaba1–0
A Athletic Club2–2
A Avai2–1
Head to head
2
Avai
2
Draw
1
Londrina
Oct 2026Avai – Londrina2–1
Jun 2026Londrina – Avai3–2
Oct 2023Londrina – Avai1–1
Jun 2023Avai – Londrina0–0
Sept 2021Avai – Londrina2–0
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Novorizontino36+3367
2Juventude36+2265
3Vila Nova36+1463
4Criciuma36+862
5Fortaleza EC36+1262
6CRB36+355
7Goias36-355
8Sport Recife36+955
9Atletico Goianiense36+955
10São Bernardo36+1152
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Avai 38%, the draw 27%, Londrina 35%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.64 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.27 for Avai, 1.21 for Londrina), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Avai sit 17th on 37 points; Londrina are 18th on 32.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.