Over 1.5 goals@1.52
Over 1.5
66%
BRASerie B · Matchday 34Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Estádio da Ressacada
Avai
17th · 37 pts0–0FULL TIME
Athletic Club
15th · 44 pts34% Avai
29% Draw
38% Athletic
OUR PICK
Athletic Club to win
Model probability 38% · fair odds
2.65
Expected goals
1.09 – 1.17
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.97X3.4922.65
Goals 2.5Over2.42Under1.65
Both scoreGG2.05NG1.84
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.65
Under 2.5
61%
Both teams to score@1.84
NG
54%
Double chance@1.40
12
71%
Season stats
AvaiAthletic Club0.9Goals per game1.1
1.3Conceded per game1.1
1.03Points per game1.26
28%Win rate29%
-13Goal difference0
7Form, last 5 (pts)2
Avai form
LLDWWA Nautico Recife1–0
H Botafogo SP0–2
H Athletic Club0–0
A Cuiaba0–1
H Londrina2–1
Athletic Club form
LDDLLA Operario-PR1–0
A Avai0–0
H Londrina2–2
A Goias2–1
H Sport Recife1–2
Head to head
1
Avai
1
Draw
2
Athletic
Oct 2026Avai – Athletic Club0–0
Jun 2026Athletic Club – Avai1–0
Nov 2025Avai – Athletic Club2–1
Jul 2025Athletic Club – Avai4–0
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Novorizontino36+3367
2Juventude36+2265
3Vila Nova36+1463
4Criciuma36+862
5Fortaleza EC35+1261
6CRB35+455
7Sport Recife36+955
8Atletico Goianiense35+954
9Goias35-452
10São Bernardo36+1152
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Avai 34%, the draw 29%, Athletic Club 38%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.65 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.09 for Avai, 1.17 for Athletic Club), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Avai sit 17th on 37 points; Athletic Club are 15th on 44.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.