Over 1.5 goals@1.10
Over 1.5
91%
FRALigue 1 · Matchday 8Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps
Auxerre
13th · 10 pts1–1FULL TIME
Le Mans
17th · 7 pts45% Auxerre
21% Draw
34% Le
OUR PICK
Auxerre to win
Model probability 45% · fair odds
2.21
Expected goals
2.13 – 1.84
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.21X4.8422.93
Goals 2.5Over1.32Under3.93
Both scoreGG1.35NG3.63
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.32
Over 2.5
76%
Both teams to score@1.35
GG
74%
Double chance@1.26
12
79%
Season stats
AuxerreLe Mans1.4Goals per game1.2
2.6Conceded per game2.0
1.11Points per game0.78
33%Win rate11%
-10Goal difference-7
7Form, last 5 (pts)4
Auxerre form
LDWLWA Strasbourg5–1
H Le Mans1–1
A Le Havre1–3
A Rennes4–1
H Clermont Foot4–3
Le Mans form
LDLLLA Estac Troyes2–0
A Auxerre1–1
H Toulouse0–3
A Paris Saint Germain3–1
A Guingamp2–1
Head to head
3
Auxerre
2
Draw
0
Le
Oct 2026Auxerre – Le Mans1–1
Aug 2020Auxerre – Le Mans3–2
Jan 2020Le Mans – Auxerre0–1
Aug 2019Auxerre – Le Mans2–0
Jan 2013Auxerre – Le Mans1–1
Ligue 1 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain9+1120
2Lille9+618
3Lyon9+817
4Paris FC9+617
5Rennes9+116
6Marseille9+715
7Monaco9+215
8Nice9+114
9Lens9+313
10Lorient8+112
Match preview
Our model makes Auxerre slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.21 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.0 goals in total (2.13 for Auxerre, 1.84 for Le Mans), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Auxerre sit 13th on 10 points; Le Mans are 17th on 7.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.