Over 1.5 goals@1.26
Over 1.5
80%
AUTBundesliga · Matchday 8Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Generali Arena
Austria Vienna
11th · 7 pts0–2FULL TIME
Sturm Graz
4th · 19 pts27% Austria
24% Draw
50% Sturm
OUR PICK
Sturm Graz to win
Model probability 50% · fair odds
2.01
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.75
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.75X4.2522.01
Goals 2.5Over1.75Under2.19
Both scoreGG1.72NG2.25
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.75
Over 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.72
GG
58%
Double chance@1.31
12
76%
Season stats
Austria ViennaSturm Graz1.0Goals per game1.7
2.0Conceded per game1.2
0.70Points per game1.73
20%Win rate45%
-10Goal difference6
4Form, last 5 (pts)8
Austria Vienna form
DLLLWH TSV Hartberg1–1
A SCR Altach2–1
A Ried3–2
H Sturm Graz0–2
A Admira Wacker1–6
Sturm Graz form
DLDWWA Wolfsberger AC1–1
A Austria Lustenau3–2
H Ried2–2
H Marseille1–0
H Grazer AK6–1
Head to head
0
Austria
0
Draw
0
Sturm
These sides haven't met recently.
Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Red Bull Salzburg11+2327
2Rapid Vienna10+2227
3Lask Linz11+1322
4Sturm Graz11+619
5TSV Hartberg11+117
6Ried11+116
7WSG Wattens11-312
8SCR Altach11-610
9Grazer AK11-1910
10Austria Lustenau11-168
Match preview
Our model makes Sturm Graz slight favourites, giving them a 50% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.01 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.22 for Austria Vienna, 1.75 for Sturm Graz), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Austria Vienna sit 11th on 7 points; Sturm Graz are 4th on 19.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.