Over 1.5 goals@1.20
Over 1.5
83%
AUSA-League · Matchday 1Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Go Media Stadium
Auckland
6th · 4 pts3–1FULL TIME
Melbourne City
7th · 4 pts32% Auckland
23% Draw
45% Melbourne
OUR PICK
Melbourne City to win
Model probability 45% · fair odds
2.22
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.76
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.14X4.3322.22
Goals 2.5Over1.61Under2.48
Both scoreGG1.58NG2.55
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.61
Over 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.58
GG
63%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
Season stats
AucklandMelbourne City2.0Goals per game1.3
2.3Conceded per game1.7
1.33Points per game1.33
33%Win rate33%
-1Goal difference-1
4Form, last 5 (pts)4
Auckland form
DLWLLA Brisbane Roar1–1
A Western Sydney Wanderers5–2
H Melbourne City3–1
H Western Sydney Wanderers1–3
A Al-Ahli Jeddah1–0
Melbourne City form
WDLWLH Sydney2–1
A Melbourne Victory1–1
A Auckland3–1
A Oakleigh Cannons0–2
A Lions2–0
Head to head
3
Auckland
1
Draw
1
Melbourne
Oct 2026Auckland – Melbourne City3–1
May 2026Auckland – Melbourne City1–1
Feb 2026Auckland – Melbourne City3–0
Jan 2026Melbourne City – Auckland2–1
Jan 2025Auckland – Melbourne City3–0
A-League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Wellington Phoenix3+69
2Western Sydney Wanderers3+35
3Macarthur3+15
4Brisbane Roar2+14
5Sydney304
6Auckland3-14
7Melbourne City3-14
8Perth Glory3+23
9Melbourne Victory3-12
10Central Coast Mariners3-22
Match preview
Our model makes Melbourne City slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.22 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (1.45 for Auckland, 1.76 for Melbourne City), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Auckland sit 6th on 4 points; Melbourne City are 7th on 4.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.