Over 1.5 goals@1.26
Over 1.5
79%
GRESuper League 1 · Matchday 7Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Peristeri Stadium
Atromitos
13th · 5 pts17:30KICK-OFF WAT
AEK Athens FC
4th · 17 pts14% Atromitos
20% Draw
66% AEK
OUR PICK
AEK Athens FC to win
Model probability 66% · fair odds
1.52
Expected goals
0.86 – 2.09
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X216.93X5.0421.52
Goals 2.5Over1.77Under2.14
Both scoreGG1.98NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.77
Over 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.98
GG
51%
Double chance@1.17
X2
86%
Season stats
AtromitosAEK Athens FC1.1Goals per game2.6
1.5Conceded per game0.6
0.63Points per game2.13
13%Win rate63%
-3Goal difference16
4Form, last 5 (pts)10
Atromitos form
WWLLH Volos NFC3–0
A Volos NFC1–3
A Aris Thessalonikis3–1
A Asteras Tripolis2–1
AEK Athens FC form
LLWLA Panathinaikos2–0
A PAOK3–1
H Panetolikos5–0
A Manchester City5–1
Head to head
0
Atromitos
1
Draw
4
AEK
Mar 2026Atromitos – AEK Athens FC2–2
Dec 2025AEK Athens FC – Atromitos4–1
Feb 2025AEK Athens FC – Atromitos2–1
Nov 2024Atromitos – AEK Athens FC0–1
Jan 2024Atromitos – AEK Athens FC0–5
Super League 1 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Panathinaikos9+1624
2Olympiakos Piraeus9+1122
3PAOK9+618
4AEK Athens FC8+1617
5Aris Thessalonikis9-416
6OFI9+216
7Kifisia9-211
8Kalamata9-411
9Iraklis 19089-210
10Panetolikos9-99
Match preview
Our model makes AEK Athens FC clear favourites, giving them a 66% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.52 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (0.86 for Atromitos, 2.09 for AEK Athens FC), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Atromitos sit 13th on 5 points; AEK Athens FC are 4th on 17.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.