Over 1.5 goals@1.30
Over 1.5
77%
URUPrimera División · Clausura - 10Friday, 9 October 2026 · Estadio Centenario
Atletico Torque
3rd · 63 pts1–0FULL TIME
Danubio
16th · 32 pts65% Atletico
20% Draw
14% Danubio
OUR PICK
Atletico Torque to win
Model probability 65% · fair odds
1.53
Expected goals
2.01 – 0.81
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.53X4.8927.04
Goals 2.5Over1.87Under2.01
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.87
Over 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.93
NG
52%
Double chance@1.17
1X
86%
Season stats
Atletico TorqueDanubio1.7Goals per game0.8
1.2Conceded per game1.3
1.80Points per game0.91
54%Win rate17%
18Goal difference-16
9Form, last 5 (pts)6
Atletico Torque form
WWWWLA Boston River1–2
A Penarol0–2
H Cerro3–1
H Atletico-MG2–0
A Albion FC2–1
Danubio form
LWLWWH Club Nacional1–2
A Wanderers Durazno0–3
A Deportivo Maldonado2–1
H Central Espanol1–0
A Central Espanol0–6
Head to head
3
Atletico
1
Draw
1
Danubio
Oct 2026Atletico Torque – Danubio1–0
Sept 2026Atletico Torque – Danubio2–0
Jul 2026Atletico Torque – Danubio1–0
Apr 2026Danubio – Atletico Torque1–1
Sept 2025Danubio – Atletico Torque2–0
Primera División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Penarol35+2465
2Deportivo Maldonado35+2263
3Atletico Torque35+1863
4Club Nacional35+1161
5Racing Montevideo35+1460
6Liverpool Montevideo35+1659
7Wanderers35-251
8Albion FC35+347
9Juventud35-641
10Central Espanol35-1341
Match preview
Our model makes Atletico Torque clear favourites, giving them a 65% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.53 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (2.01 for Atletico Torque, 0.81 for Danubio), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Atletico Torque sit 3rd on 63 points; Danubio are 16th on 32.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.