Over 1.5 goals@1.36
Over 1.5
73%
MEXLiga MX · Apertura - 11Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Alfonso Lastras Ramirez
Atletico San Luis
13th · 19 pts1–2FULL TIME
Santos Laguna
8th · 22 pts40% Atletico
26% Draw
33% Santos
OUR PICK
Atletico San Luis to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.48
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.23
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.48X3.8123.00
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.94
Both scoreGG1.89NG2.01
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.94
Under 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.89
GG
53%
Double chance@1.36
12
74%
Season stats
Atletico San LuisSantos Laguna1.3Goals per game1.4
1.5Conceded per game1.3
1.27Points per game1.47
33%Win rate47%
-4Goal difference1
7Form, last 5 (pts)12
Atletico San Luis form
LWWDLH Atlas0–1
A Atlante FC0–1
H Club Queretaro2–1
A Toluca1–1
H Santos Laguna1–2
Santos Laguna form
WLWWWH Necaxa1–0
A Club Tijuana4–1
H U.N.A.M. - Pumas2–0
H Club Queretaro5–0
A Atletico San Luis1–2
Head to head
4
Atletico
0
Draw
1
Santos
Oct 2026Atletico San Luis – Santos Laguna1–2
Apr 2026Atletico San Luis – Santos Laguna2–0
Sept 2025Santos Laguna – Atletico San Luis1–4
Mar 2025Santos Laguna – Atletico San Luis2–3
Sept 2024Atletico San Luis – Santos Laguna3–1
Liga MX table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Club America15+1529
2Guadalajara Chivas15+1129
3Cruz Azul15+1029
4Atlas15027
5Toluca15+1024
6Club Tijuana15+422
7Leon15+222
8Santos Laguna15+122
9Monterrey14+521
10U.N.A.M. - Pumas15-220
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Atletico San Luis 40%, the draw 26%, Santos Laguna 33%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.48 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.38 for Atletico San Luis, 1.23 for Santos Laguna), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Atletico San Luis sit 13th on 19 points; Santos Laguna are 8th on 22.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.