Over 1.5 goals@1.26
Over 1.5
79%
BRASerie A · Matchday 34Wednesday, 4 November 2026 · Arena da Baixada
Atletico Paranaense
5th · 54 pts23:30KICK-OFF WAT
Vasco DA Gama
13th · 38 pts57% Atletico
22% Draw
20% Vasco
OUR PICK
Atletico Paranaense to win
Model probability 57% · fair odds
1.74
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.04
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.74X4.5124.90
Goals 2.5Over1.78Under2.14
Both scoreGG1.82NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.78
Over 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.82
GG
55%
Double chance@1.26
1X
80%
Season stats
Atletico ParanaenseVasco DA Gama1.5Goals per game1.3
1.2Conceded per game1.5
1.64Points per game1.19
45%Win rate31%
10Goal difference-9
5Form, last 5 (pts)7
Atletico Paranaense form
LDLWDA Gremio2–0
A Vitoria1–1
H Palmeiras0–2
A Chapecoense-sc1–4
H Atletico-MG2–2
Vasco DA Gama form
LLWLLA Palmeiras1–0
H Flamengo1–4
H Corinthians3–2
H Boca Juniors1–3
A Sao Paulo1–0
Head to head
2
Atletico
0
Draw
3
Vasco
May 2026Vasco DA Gama – Atletico Paranaense1–0
Sept 2024Atletico Paranaense – Vasco DA Gama2–1
Aug 2024Vasco DA Gama – Atletico Paranaense2–1
Aug 2024Vasco DA Gama – Atletico Paranaense2–1
May 2024Atletico Paranaense – Vasco DA Gama1–0
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8Santos33+247
9RB Bragantino33+444
10Sao Paulo33043
Match preview
Our model makes Atletico Paranaense clear favourites, giving them a 57% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.74 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.90 for Atletico Paranaense, 1.04 for Vasco DA Gama), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Atletico Paranaense sit 5th on 54 points; Vasco DA Gama are 13th on 38.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.