Over 1.5 goals@1.39
Over 1.5
72%
BRASerie A · Matchday 29Thursday, 8 October 2026 · Arena da Baixada
Atletico Paranaense
5th · 54 pts2–2FULL TIME
Atletico-MG
7th · 50 pts47% Atletico
26% Draw
27% Atletico-MG
OUR PICK
Atletico Paranaense to win
Model probability 47% · fair odds
2.15
Expected goals
1.47 – 1.06
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.15X3.8323.67
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.86
Both scoreGG1.99NG1.89
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.86
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.99
GG
50%
Double chance@1.35
12
74%
Season stats
Atletico ParanaenseAtletico-MG1.5Goals per game1.3
1.2Conceded per game1.2
1.64Points per game1.52
45%Win rate42%
10Goal difference5
5Form, last 5 (pts)7
Atletico Paranaense form
LDLWDA Gremio2–0
A Vitoria1–1
H Palmeiras0–2
A Chapecoense-sc1–4
H Atletico-MG2–2
Atletico-MG form
LLLLWA Gremio2–0
H Cruzeiro0–1
A Flamengo3–2
A Atletico Torque2–0
H Coritiba1–0
Head to head
1
Atletico
2
Draw
2
Atletico-MG
Oct 2026Atletico Paranaense – Atletico-MG2–2
Apr 2026Atletico-MG – Atletico Paranaense2–1
Dec 2024Atletico-MG – Atletico Paranaense1–0
Nov 2024Atletico Paranaense – Atletico-MG1–0
Sept 2023Atletico Paranaense – Atletico-MG1–1
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8Santos33+247
9RB Bragantino33+444
10Sao Paulo33043
Match preview
Our model makes Atletico Paranaense slight favourites, giving them a 47% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.15 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.47 for Atletico Paranaense, 1.06 for Atletico-MG), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Atletico Paranaense sit 5th on 54 points; Atletico-MG are 7th on 50.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.