Over 1.5 goals@1.24
Over 1.5
80%
COLPrimera A · Clausura - 18Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Atletico Nacional
1st · 40 pts00:10KICK-OFF WAT
Deportivo Pereira
20th · 10 pts80% Atletico
14% Draw
6% Deportivo
OUR PICK
Atletico Nacional to win
Model probability 80% · fair odds
1.25
Expected goals
2.49 – 0.54
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.25X7.18216.37
Goals 2.5Over1.72Under2.25
Both scoreGG2.48NG1.62
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.72
Over 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.62
NG
62%
Double chance@1.07
1X
94%
Season stats
Atletico NacionalDeportivo Pereira1.8Goals per game0.8
0.8Conceded per game1.7
2.11Points per game0.53
68%Win rate5%
20Goal difference-17
12Form, last 5 (pts)9
Atletico Nacional form
WWWLWH Santa Fe2–0
H Independiente Medellin2–1
H Deportivo Pasto3–0
A Cucuta1–0
A Chico1–4
Deportivo Pereira form
WDWDDH Jaguares1–0
A Once Caldas1–1
H Chico2–0
A Junior1–1
H Deportivo Cali0–0
Head to head
1
Atletico
1
Draw
3
Deportivo
Apr 2026Deportivo Pereira – Atletico Nacional1–0
Jul 2025Deportivo Pereira – Atletico Nacional2–1
Feb 2025Atletico Nacional – Deportivo Pereira3–0
Nov 2024Deportivo Pereira – Atletico Nacional1–1
Apr 2024Atletico Nacional – Deportivo Pereira0–1
Primera A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Atletico Nacional19+2040
2Junior19+735
3Deportivo Pasto19+434
4America de Cali19+1033
5Once Caldas19+933
6Deportes Tolima19+1031
7Santa Fe19+729
8Internacional de Bogota19028
9Deportivo Cali19+427
10Millonarios19+826
Match preview
Our model makes Atletico Nacional clear favourites, giving them a 80% chance of winning against 14% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.25 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (2.49 for Atletico Nacional, 0.54 for Deportivo Pereira), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Atletico Nacional sit 1st on 40 points; Deportivo Pereira are 20th on 10.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.