Over 1.5 goals@1.29
Over 1.5
78%
COLPrimera A · Clausura - 14Friday, 23 October 2026 · Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Atletico Nacional
1st · 40 pts3–0FULL TIME
Deportivo Pasto
3rd · 34 pts57% Atletico
23% Draw
20% Deportivo
OUR PICK
Atletico Nacional to win
Model probability 57% · fair odds
1.75
Expected goals
1.84 – 1.00
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.75X4.4124.93
Goals 2.5Over1.85Under2.05
Both scoreGG1.88NG2.01
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.85
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.88
GG
53%
Double chance@1.25
1X
80%
Season stats
Atletico NacionalDeportivo Pasto1.8Goals per game1.5
0.8Conceded per game1.3
2.11Points per game1.79
68%Win rate53%
20Goal difference4
12Form, last 5 (pts)4
Atletico Nacional form
WWWLWH Santa Fe2–0
H Independiente Medellin2–1
H Deportivo Pasto3–0
A Cucuta1–0
A Chico1–4
Deportivo Pasto form
LWLLDA Bucaramanga2–1
A Deportes Tolima0–1
A Atletico Nacional3–0
H Alianza Valledupar0–1
H Fortaleza FC0–0
Head to head
4
Atletico
1
Draw
0
Deportivo
Oct 2026Atletico Nacional – Deportivo Pasto3–0
Mar 2026Deportivo Pasto – Atletico Nacional1–2
Oct 2025Deportivo Pasto – Atletico Nacional2–2
Apr 2025Atletico Nacional – Deportivo Pasto3–0
Dec 2024Atletico Nacional – Deportivo Pasto2–1
Primera A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Atletico Nacional19+2040
2Junior19+735
3Deportivo Pasto19+434
4America de Cali19+1033
5Once Caldas19+933
6Deportes Tolima19+1031
7Santa Fe19+729
8Internacional de Bogota19028
9Deportivo Cali19+427
10Millonarios19+826
Match preview
Our model makes Atletico Nacional clear favourites, giving them a 57% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.75 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.84 for Atletico Nacional, 1.00 for Deportivo Pasto), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Atletico Nacional sit 1st on 40 points; Deportivo Pasto are 3rd on 34.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.