Over 1.5 goals@1.38
Over 1.5
72%
COLPrimera A · Clausura - 9Thursday, 8 October 2026 · Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Atletico Nacional
1st · 40 pts0–0FULL TIME
Deportes Tolima
6th · 31 pts53% Atletico
25% Draw
22% Deportes
OUR PICK
Atletico Nacional to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.88
Expected goals
1.62 – 0.94
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.88X4.0324.57
Goals 2.5Over2.01Under1.89
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.96
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.89
Under 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.96
NG
51%
Double chance@1.28
1X
78%
Season stats
Atletico NacionalDeportes Tolima1.8Goals per game1.4
0.8Conceded per game0.9
2.11Points per game1.63
68%Win rate42%
20Goal difference10
12Form, last 5 (pts)2
Atletico Nacional form
WWWLWH Santa Fe2–0
H Independiente Medellin2–1
H Deportivo Pasto3–0
A Cucuta1–0
A Chico1–4
Deportes Tolima form
LLLDDH Deportivo Pasto0–1
A Águilas Doradas2–1
A Jaguares3–2
A Atletico Nacional0–0
H Chico0–0
Head to head
2
Atletico
2
Draw
1
Deportes
Oct 2026Atletico Nacional – Deportes Tolima0–0
May 2026Atletico Nacional – Deportes Tolima3–1
May 2026Deportes Tolima – Atletico Nacional0–1
Mar 2026Deportes Tolima – Atletico Nacional1–0
Aug 2025Deportes Tolima – Atletico Nacional0–0
Primera A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Atletico Nacional19+2040
2Junior19+735
3Deportivo Pasto19+434
4America de Cali19+1033
5Once Caldas19+933
6Deportes Tolima19+1031
7Santa Fe19+729
8Internacional de Bogota19028
9Deportivo Cali19+427
10Millonarios19+826
Match preview
Our model makes Atletico Nacional clear favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.88 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.62 for Atletico Nacional, 0.94 for Deportes Tolima), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Atletico Nacional sit 1st on 40 points; Deportes Tolima are 6th on 31.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.