Over 1.5 goals@1.57
Over 1.5
64%
ARGPrimera Nacional · Matchday 33Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Estadio Aurinegro
Atletico Mitre
13th · 40 pts0–0FULL TIME
Colon Santa Fe
5th · 60 pts22% Atletico
28% Draw
49% Colon
OUR PICK
Colon Santa Fe to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.02
Expected goals
0.81 – 1.35
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.45X3.5722.02
Goals 2.5Over2.55Under1.58
Both scoreGG2.30NG1.70
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.58
Under 2.5
63%
Both teams to score@1.70
NG
59%
Double chance@1.29
X2
78%
Season stats
Atletico MitreColon Santa Fe0.9Goals per game1.3
1.2Conceded per game0.8
1.11Points per game1.67
22%Win rate44%
-11Goal difference18
8Form, last 5 (pts)11
Atletico Mitre form
DLWDWA Los Andes0–0
H Godoy Cruz0–3
A Deportivo Moron0–2
H Colon Santa Fe0–0
A San Miguel0–2
Colon Santa Fe form
WWDDWH Defensores De Belgrano2–0
A Ciudad de Bolívar0–2
H Almirante Brown2–2
A Atletico Mitre0–0
H CA Estudiantes1–0
Head to head
2
Atletico
2
Draw
1
Colon
Oct 2026Atletico Mitre – Colon Santa Fe0–0
May 2026Colon Santa Fe – Atletico Mitre1–1
Jul 2025Colon Santa Fe – Atletico Mitre0–1
Feb 2025Atletico Mitre – Colon Santa Fe0–1
Aug 2024Colon Santa Fe – Atletico Mitre1–2
Primera Nacional table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Godoy Cruz36+2066
2Ferro Carril Oeste36+766
3Deportivo Moron36+1661
4Deportivo Madryn36+2160
5Colon Santa Fe36+1860
6Almirante Brown36+451
7Ciudad de Bolívar36-351
8CA Estudiantes36049
9Chaco For Ever36+246
10Los Andes36+143
Match preview
Our model makes Colon Santa Fe slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.02 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.2 goals in total (0.81 for Atletico Mitre, 1.35 for Colon Santa Fe), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Atletico Mitre sit 13th on 40 points; Colon Santa Fe are 5th on 60.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.