Over 1.5 goals@1.32
Over 1.5
76%
BRASerie A · Matchday 30Sunday, 11 October 2026 · MRV Arena
Atletico-MG
7th · 50 pts2–1FULL TIME
Santos
8th · 47 pts45% Atletico-MG
25% Draw
29% Santos
OUR PICK
Atletico-MG to win
Model probability 45% · fair odds
2.20
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.20
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.20X3.9823.39
Goals 2.5Over1.93Under1.97
Both scoreGG1.82NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.93
Over 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.82
GG
55%
Double chance@1.34
12
75%
Season stats
Atletico-MGSantos1.3Goals per game1.5
1.2Conceded per game1.4
1.52Points per game1.42
42%Win rate36%
5Goal difference2
7Form, last 5 (pts)6
Atletico-MG form
LLLWWH Cruzeiro0–1
A Flamengo3–2
A Atletico Torque2–0
H Coritiba1–0
H Atletico Torque3–0
Santos form
DDWLDH Palmeiras0–0
H Bahia1–1
A Fluminense1–2
A Atletico-MG2–1
H Flamengo2–2
Head to head
2
Atletico-MG
1
Draw
2
Santos
Oct 2026Atletico-MG – Santos2–1
Sept 2026Atletico-MG – Santos4–2
Sept 2026Santos – Atletico-MG2–0
Apr 2026Santos – Atletico-MG1–0
Sept 2025Atletico-MG – Santos1–1
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8Santos33+247
9RB Bragantino33+444
10Sao Paulo33043
Match preview
Our model makes Atletico-MG slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.20 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.55 for Atletico-MG, 1.20 for Santos), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Atletico-MG sit 7th on 50 points; Santos are 8th on 47.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.