Over 1.5 goals@1.44
Over 1.5
70%
BRASerie A · Matchday 21Saturday, 3 October 2026 · MRV Arena
Atletico-MG
7th · 50 pts1–0FULL TIME
RB Bragantino
9th · 44 pts42% Atletico-MG
27% Draw
31% RB
OUR PICK
Atletico-MG to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.37
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.09
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.37X3.6723.27
Goals 2.5Over2.14Under1.77
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.95
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.77
Under 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.95
NG
51%
Double chance@1.38
12
73%
Season stats
Atletico-MGRB Bragantino1.3Goals per game1.3
1.2Conceded per game1.2
1.52Points per game1.33
42%Win rate36%
5Goal difference4
7Form, last 5 (pts)8
Atletico-MG form
LLLLWA Gremio2–0
H Cruzeiro0–1
A Flamengo3–2
A Atletico Torque2–0
H Coritiba1–0
RB Bragantino form
WLDWDH Chapecoense-sc3–0
A Palmeiras2–0
A Remo1–1
H Cruzeiro4–2
H Mirassol1–1
Head to head
2
Atletico-MG
1
Draw
2
RB
Oct 2026Atletico-MG – RB Bragantino1–0
Aug 2026Atletico-MG – RB Bragantino2–2
Aug 2026RB Bragantino – Atletico-MG0–1
Feb 2026RB Bragantino – Atletico-MG1–0
Nov 2025RB Bragantino – Atletico-MG2–0
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8Santos33+247
9RB Bragantino33+444
10Sao Paulo33043
Match preview
Our model makes Atletico-MG slight favourites, giving them a 42% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.37 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.33 for Atletico-MG, 1.09 for RB Bragantino), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Atletico-MG sit 7th on 50 points; RB Bragantino are 9th on 44.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.