Over 1.5 goals@1.27
Over 1.5
79%
BRASerie A · Matchday 33Thursday, 29 October 2026 · MRV Arena
Atletico-MG
7th · 50 pts0–1FULL TIME
Cruzeiro
3rd · 57 pts46% Atletico-MG
24% Draw
29% Cruzeiro
OUR PICK
Atletico-MG to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.16
Expected goals
1.64 – 1.26
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.16X4.1223.40
Goals 2.5Over1.81Under2.10
Both scoreGG1.73NG2.25
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.81
Over 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.73
GG
58%
Double chance@1.32
12
76%
Season stats
Atletico-MGCruzeiro1.3Goals per game1.6
1.2Conceded per game1.4
1.52Points per game1.73
42%Win rate52%
5Goal difference6
7Form, last 5 (pts)12
Atletico-MG form
LLLLWA Gremio2–0
H Cruzeiro0–1
A Flamengo3–2
A Atletico Torque2–0
H Coritiba1–0
Cruzeiro form
WWWLWA Atletico-MG0–1
H Remo1–0
A Gremio2–4
A RB Bragantino4–2
H Sao Paulo2–0
Head to head
2
Atletico-MG
1
Draw
2
Cruzeiro
Oct 2026Atletico-MG – Cruzeiro0–1
Sept 2026Atletico-MG – Cruzeiro2–1
Aug 2026Cruzeiro – Atletico-MG1–1
May 2026Cruzeiro – Atletico-MG1–3
Mar 2026Cruzeiro – Atletico-MG1–0
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8Santos33+247
9RB Bragantino33+444
10Sao Paulo33043
Match preview
Our model makes Atletico-MG slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.16 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.64 for Atletico-MG, 1.26 for Cruzeiro), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Atletico-MG sit 7th on 50 points; Cruzeiro are 3rd on 57.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.