Over 1.5 goals@1.32
Over 1.5
76%
BRASerie A · Matchday 31Saturday, 17 October 2026 · MRV Arena
Atletico-MG
7th · 50 pts1–0FULL TIME
Coritiba
11th · 42 pts53% Atletico-MG
24% Draw
23% Coritiba
OUR PICK
Atletico-MG to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.89
Expected goals
1.71 – 1.04
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.89X4.1824.35
Goals 2.5Over1.93Under1.97
Both scoreGG1.89NG2.01
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.93
Over 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.89
GG
53%
Double chance@1.30
1X
77%
Season stats
Atletico-MGCoritiba1.3Goals per game1.2
1.2Conceded per game1.5
1.52Points per game1.27
42%Win rate33%
5Goal difference-10
7Form, last 5 (pts)4
Atletico-MG form
LLLLWA Gremio2–0
H Cruzeiro0–1
A Flamengo3–2
A Atletico Torque2–0
H Coritiba1–0
Coritiba form
WLLDLH Vitoria2–0
H Gremio0–1
A Atletico-MG1–0
H Botafogo1–1
A Fluminense4–0
Head to head
3
Atletico-MG
0
Draw
2
Coritiba
Oct 2026Atletico-MG – Coritiba1–0
Apr 2026Coritiba – Atletico-MG2–0
Oct 2023Atletico-MG – Coritiba1–2
May 2023Coritiba – Atletico-MG1–2
Aug 2022Coritiba – Atletico-MG0–1
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8RB Bragantino34+547
9Santos34+147
10Sao Paulo33043
Match preview
Our model makes Atletico-MG slight favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.89 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.71 for Atletico-MG, 1.04 for Coritiba), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Atletico-MG sit 7th on 50 points; Coritiba are 11th on 42.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.