Over 1.5 goals@1.28
Over 1.5
78%
ESPLa Liga · Matchday 10Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Atletico Madrid
2nd · 28 pts1–0FULL TIME
Deportivo La Coruna
13th · 11 pts63% Atletico
21% Draw
16% Deportivo
OUR PICK
Atletico Madrid to win
Model probability 63% · fair odds
1.58
Expected goals
1.99 – 0.87
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.58X4.7926.39
Goals 2.5Over1.84Under2.05
Both scoreGG1.99NG1.89
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.84
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.99
GG
50%
Double chance@1.19
1X
84%
Season stats
Atletico MadridDeportivo La Coruna2.0Goals per game1.3
0.7Conceded per game1.3
2.55Points per game1.10
82%Win rate20%
14Goal difference0
15Form, last 5 (pts)2
Atletico Madrid form
WWDWWA Levante0–2
H Deportivo La Coruna1–0
A VfB Stuttgart1–1
A Espanyol0–1
H Manchester United2–0
Deportivo La Coruna form
WLDLLA Auriense0–3
A Atletico Madrid1–0
H Levante1–1
A Real Sociedad3–2
H FC Porto1–3
Head to head
4
Atletico
1
Draw
0
Deportivo
Oct 2026Atletico Madrid – Deportivo La Coruna1–0
Jan 2026Deportivo La Coruna – Atletico Madrid0–1
Apr 2018Atletico Madrid – Deportivo La Coruna1–0
Nov 2017Deportivo La Coruna – Atletico Madrid0–1
Mar 2017Deportivo La Coruna – Atletico Madrid1–1
La Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Barcelona11+3430
2Atletico Madrid11+1428
3Real Madrid11+1827
4Real Betis11+323
5Real Sociedad11019
6Sevilla11-217
7Athletic Club10+415
8Villarreal11012
9Celta Vigo11012
10Alaves11-212
Match preview
Our model makes Atletico Madrid clear favourites, giving them a 63% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.58 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.99 for Atletico Madrid, 0.87 for Deportivo La Coruna), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Atletico Madrid sit 2nd on 28 points; Deportivo La Coruna are 13th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.