Over 1.5 goals@1.15
Over 1.5
87%
WORUEFA Champions League · League Stage - 4Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Atletico Madrid
16th · 4 pts21:00KICK-OFF WAT
Bayern München
14th · 5 pts39% Atletico
22% Draw
39% Bayern
OUR PICK
Bayern München to win
Model probability 39% · fair odds
2.54
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.80
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.59X4.5422.54
Goals 2.5Over1.44Under3.04
Both scoreGG1.44NG3.04
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.44
Over 2.5
69%
Both teams to score@1.44
GG
69%
Double chance@1.28
12
78%
Season stats
Atletico MadridBayern München1.3Goals per game3.3
1.0Conceded per game1.7
1.33Points per game1.67
33%Win rate33%
1Goal difference5
4Form, last 5 (pts)5
Atletico Madrid form
WWDWWA Levante0–2
H Deportivo La Coruna1–0
A VfB Stuttgart1–1
A Espanyol0–1
H Manchester United2–0
Bayern München form
DWWDWH Borussia Dortmund2–2
H 1. FC Magdeburg6–1
A SC Freiburg1–3
H Arsenal2–2
H RB Leipzig6–1
Head to head
0
Atletico
0
Draw
0
Bayern
These sides haven't met recently.
UEFA Champions League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain3+99
2Aston Villa3+99
3Liverpool3+59
4Real Madrid3+59
5Real Betis3+39
6VfB Stuttgart3+57
7Arsenal3+47
8Barcelona3+56
9Como3+56
10Manchester City3+46
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Atletico Madrid 39%, the draw 22%, Bayern München 39%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.54 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.6 goals in total (1.78 for Atletico Madrid, 1.80 for Bayern München), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Atletico Madrid sit 16th on 4 points; Bayern München are 14th on 5.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.