Over 1.5 goals@1.15
Over 1.5
87%
ESPLa Liga · Matchday 12Sunday, 8 November 2026 · Metropolitano Stadium
Atletico Madrid
2nd · 28 pts21:00KICK-OFF WAT
Barcelona
1st · 30 pts34% Atletico
22% Draw
44% Barcelona
OUR PICK
Barcelona to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.27
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.92
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.94X4.5822.27
Goals 2.5Over1.44Under3.14
Both scoreGG1.44NG3.04
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.44
Over 2.5
70%
Both teams to score@1.44
GG
69%
Double chance@1.28
12
78%
Season stats
Atletico MadridBarcelona2.0Goals per game4.2
0.7Conceded per game1.1
2.55Points per game2.73
82%Win rate91%
14Goal difference34
15Form, last 5 (pts)12
Atletico Madrid form
WWDWWA Levante0–2
H Deportivo La Coruna1–0
A VfB Stuttgart1–1
A Espanyol0–1
H Manchester United2–0
Barcelona form
WLLWWH Alaves6–1
H Real Madrid1–2
A Paris Saint Germain4–2
A Real Betis2–5
A Galatasaray1–4
Head to head
2
Atletico
0
Draw
3
Barcelona
Apr 2026Atletico Madrid – Barcelona1–2
Apr 2026Barcelona – Atletico Madrid0–2
Apr 2026Atletico Madrid – Barcelona1–2
Mar 2026Barcelona – Atletico Madrid3–0
Feb 2026Atletico Madrid – Barcelona4–0
La Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Barcelona11+3430
2Atletico Madrid11+1428
3Real Madrid11+1827
4Real Betis11+323
5Real Sociedad11019
6Sevilla11-217
7Athletic Club10+415
8Villarreal11012
9Celta Vigo11012
10Alaves11-212
Match preview
Our model makes Barcelona slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.27 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.6 goals in total (1.67 for Atletico Madrid, 1.92 for Barcelona), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Atletico Madrid sit 2nd on 28 points; Barcelona are 1st on 30.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.