Over 1.5 goals@1.56
Over 1.5
64%
BRASerie B · Matchday 33Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Estadio Antonio Accioly
Atletico Goianiense
8th · 55 pts1–1FULL TIME
Sport Recife
7th · 55 pts43% Atletico
29% Draw
28% Sport
OUR PICK
Atletico Goianiense to win
Model probability 43% · fair odds
2.35
Expected goals
1.23 – 0.95
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.35X3.4623.51
Goals 2.5Over2.55Under1.59
Both scoreGG2.19NG1.77
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.59
Under 2.5
63%
Both teams to score@1.77
NG
57%
Double chance@1.40
1X
72%
Season stats
Atletico GoianienseSport Recife1.2Goals per game1.3
0.9Conceded per game1.1
1.53Points per game1.53
39%Win rate39%
9Goal difference9
3Form, last 5 (pts)8
Atletico Goianiense form
DLDDLA Fortaleza EC0–0
H Novorizontino0–1
A Ponte Preta1–1
H Sport Recife1–1
A CRB3–1
Sport Recife form
DWLDWA Botafogo SP1–1
H Criciuma2–1
H Fortaleza EC0–2
A Atletico Goianiense1–1
H São Bernardo2–1
Head to head
1
Atletico
3
Draw
1
Sport
Oct 2026Atletico Goianiense – Sport Recife1–1
Jun 2026Sport Recife – Atletico Goianiense1–1
Nov 2023Sport Recife – Atletico Goianiense0–0
Jul 2023Atletico Goianiense – Sport Recife3–1
Oct 2021Sport Recife – Atletico Goianiense2–0
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Novorizontino36+3367
2Juventude36+2265
3Vila Nova36+1463
4Criciuma36+862
5Fortaleza EC36+1262
6CRB35+455
7Sport Recife36+955
8Atletico Goianiense36+955
9Goias35-452
10São Bernardo36+1152
Match preview
Our model makes Atletico Goianiense slight favourites, giving them a 43% chance of winning against 29% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.35 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.2 goals in total (1.23 for Atletico Goianiense, 0.95 for Sport Recife), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Atletico Goianiense sit 8th on 55 points; Sport Recife are 7th on 55.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.