Over 1.5 goals@2.04
Over 1.5
49%
ARGPrimera Nacional · Matchday 34Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Estadio Nuevo Monumental
Atletico DE Rafaela
1–0FULL TIME
Quilmes
31% Atletico
35% Draw
35% Quilmes
OUR PICK
Quilmes to win
Model probability 35% · fair odds
2.89
Expected goals
0.79 – 0.86
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.26X2.8922.89
Goals 2.5Over4.10Under1.30
Both scoreGG2.95NG1.46
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.30
Under 2.5
77%
Both teams to score@1.46
NG
68%
Double chance@1.44
X2
69%
Atletico DE Rafaela form
DDWLLH Patronato0–0
A Colegiales1–1
H Quilmes1–0
A Midland4–0
H Atlanta2–3
Quilmes form
WWLLDA Gimnasia Y Tiro0–1
H San Martin Tucuman2–1
A Atletico DE Rafaela1–0
H Agropecuario0–1
A Tristan Suarez0–0
Head to head
3
Atletico
0
Draw
2
Quilmes
Oct 2026Atletico DE Rafaela – Quilmes1–0
May 2026Quilmes – Atletico DE Rafaela2–0
Jul 2023Quilmes – Atletico DE Rafaela1–2
Mar 2023Atletico DE Rafaela – Quilmes1–0
May 2022Atletico DE Rafaela – Quilmes1–2
Primera Nacional table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Godoy Cruz36+2066
2Ferro Carril Oeste36+766
3Deportivo Moron36+1661
4Deportivo Madryn36+2160
5Colon Santa Fe36+1860
6Almirante Brown36+451
7Ciudad de Bolívar36-351
8CA Estudiantes36049
9Chaco For Ever36+246
10Los Andes36+143
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Atletico DE Rafaela 31%, the draw 35%, Quilmes 35%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.89 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.6 goals in total (0.79 for Atletico DE Rafaela, 0.86 for Quilmes), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.