Over 1.5 goals@1.34
Over 1.5
74%
MEXLiga MX · Apertura - 14Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Estadio Jalisco
Atlas
4th · 27 pts4–3FULL TIME
Puebla
14th · 16 pts50% Atlas
25% Draw
25% Puebla
OUR PICK
Atlas to win
Model probability 50% · fair odds
2.00
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.06
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.00X4.0123.97
Goals 2.5Over1.89Under1.99
Both scoreGG1.92NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.99
Under 2.5
50%
Both teams to score@1.92
GG
52%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
Season stats
AtlasPuebla1.7Goals per game1.1
1.7Conceded per game1.5
1.80Points per game1.07
53%Win rate27%
0Goal difference-6
10Form, last 5 (pts)2
Atlas form
WWLWDA Atletico San Luis0–1
H Puebla4–3
H Club America2–5
A Necaxa0–2
H Guadalajara Chivas1–1
Puebla form
LLLDDH U.N.A.M. - Pumas1–2
A Atlas4–3
H Monterrey1–4
A Club Tijuana0–0
H Leon1–1
Head to head
4
Atlas
0
Draw
1
Puebla
Oct 2026Atlas – Puebla4–3
Jul 2026Atlas – Puebla3–4
Jan 2026Atlas – Puebla1–0
Jul 2025Puebla – Atlas2–3
Feb 2025Atlas – Puebla3–2
Liga MX table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Club America15+1529
2Guadalajara Chivas15+1129
3Cruz Azul15+1029
4Atlas15027
5Toluca15+1024
6Club Tijuana15+422
7Leon15+222
8Santos Laguna15+122
9Monterrey14+521
10U.N.A.M. - Pumas15-220
Match preview
Our model makes Atlas slight favourites, giving them a 50% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.00 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.60 for Atlas, 1.06 for Puebla), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Atlas sit 4th on 27 points; Puebla are 14th on 16.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.