Over 1.5 goals@1.19
Over 1.5
84%
MEXLiga MX · Apertura - 16Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Estadio Jalisco
Atlas
4th · 27 pts00:00KICK-OFF WAT
CF Pachuca
12th · 19 pts39% Atlas
23% Draw
38% CF
OUR PICK
Atlas to win
Model probability 39% · fair odds
2.57
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.63
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.57X4.3322.63
Goals 2.5Over1.57Under2.62
Both scoreGG1.54NG2.70
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.57
Over 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.54
GG
65%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
Season stats
AtlasCF Pachuca1.7Goals per game1.7
1.7Conceded per game1.3
1.80Points per game1.27
53%Win rate33%
0Goal difference6
10Form, last 5 (pts)7
Atlas form
WWLWDA Atletico San Luis0–1
H Puebla4–3
H Club America2–5
A Necaxa0–2
H Guadalajara Chivas1–1
CF Pachuca form
WWLLDH Tigres UANL3–0
A Club America1–2
H Cruz Azul1–2
A Monterrey2–1
H Necaxa3–3
Head to head
1
Atlas
1
Draw
3
CF
Feb 2026CF Pachuca – Atlas3–1
Aug 2025Atlas – CF Pachuca0–3
Feb 2025CF Pachuca – Atlas0–0
Sept 2024Atlas – CF Pachuca2–0
Feb 2024CF Pachuca – Atlas4–3
Liga MX table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Club America15+1529
2Guadalajara Chivas15+1129
3Cruz Azul15+1029
4Atlas15027
5Toluca15+1024
6Club Tijuana15+422
7Leon15+222
8Santos Laguna15+122
9Monterrey14+521
10U.N.A.M. - Pumas15-220
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Atlas 39%, the draw 23%, CF Pachuca 38%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.57 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (1.65 for Atlas, 1.63 for CF Pachuca), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Atlas sit 4th on 27 points; CF Pachuca are 12th on 19.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.